Final Golden Globes Predictions: A Competitive Comedy/Musical Race is No Laughing Matter
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Golden Globes Awards Commentary (Updated: Dec. 5, 2025): Up is down, left is right, and — somehow — the Golden Globes’ comedy races are far more competitive than their drama counterparts. The unpredictability of this awards season continues to defy precedent.
On the film side, the Globes are looking to be one of the most volatile stops on the circuit. But this year brings a twist few saw coming: the comedy/musical categories are suddenly more stacked, prestigious and aggressively contested than the drama races, overturning long-held assumptions about Hollywood’s “fun” categories.
Traditionally, the Globes’ comedy/musical fields were where lighter crowd-pleasers or less awards-centric films found a comfortable landing — think “Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason.” The drama races, by contrast, were reserved for the big Oscar hopefuls. Not this year.
Leading the genre shift is Universal’s “Wicked: For Good,” which has dominated the box office and reviews, placing it in a heated three-way matchup with Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” and A24’s “Marty Supreme.” In Josh Safdie’s ping-pong dramedy, Timothée Chalamet finds himself in prime position for his first Globe win — if he can fend off fellow heavyweights such as Leonardo DiCaprio (in “One Battle After Another”), George Clooney (“Jay Kelly”) and a resurgent Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”).
Yorgos Lanthimos continues his blistering Globes momentum with Focus Features’ “Bugonia,” following previous nominations for “Poor Things” and “The Favourite.” Stars Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons are poised to make strong bids in the acting races. Add to that Rian Johnson’s “Wake Up Dead Man,” the third entry in the “Knives Out” franchise and Park Chan-wook’s South Korean dark dramedy “No Other Choice” and the comedy/musical field becomes even tighter.
With six nominees per category — and eight for the Globes’ box office and cinematic achievement race — the competition remains fierce from top to bottom.
In lead actress (comedy/musical), Cynthia Erivo emerges as the clear front-runner for returning as Elphaba in Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked: For Good.” Her co-star Ariana Grande is also a major player in supporting actress. Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), Chase Infiniti (“One Battle”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”) and Amanda Seyfried (“The Testament of Ann Lee”) are all vying for the remaining spots, with Dakota Johnson (“Materialists”), Pamela Anderson (“The Naked Gun”) and Globe darling Olivia Colman (“The Roses”) looking for an opportunity to sneak in.
On the lead actor side, Chalamet may have the edge — he’s earned four Globe acting nominations already. But DiCaprio — already a three-time Globe winner — remains a formidable challenger for “One Battle After Another.” Plemons continues to rise with “Bugonia,” and veterans Clooney, Hawke and Daniel Craig (“Wake Up Dead Man”) aim to secure the remaining slots. And there’s another musical in the mix: the filmed version of the Broadway production of “Merrily We Roll Along,” which is eligible for Globes, but not Oscars.
Still, the drama categories remain prestigious, even if more settled. “Sinners” leads the dramatic field, with “Hamnet” and “Sentimental Value” close behind. The latter has a surefire contender with Stellan Skarsgård looking to embark on the road to the Oscar. In drama actress, his co-star Renate Reinsve looks to take on Jessie Buckley, a locked and loaded contender for “Hamnet.”
“Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan looks strong in drama actor, bolstered by the film’s overall chances and, hopefully, Ryan Coogler’s directing and screenplay bids.
A compelling subplot comes from Brazil’s Wagner Moura in the thriller “The Secret Agent.” The “Narcos” star could mirror last year’s breakout Fernanda Torres, who won for “I’m Still Here” and then scored a surprise Oscar nomination. That film even landed a best picture nod, raising the question: Can “The Secret Agent” continue Latin American cinema’s award-season surge?
As voting begins, the comedy/musical categories’ rise mirrors a broader realignment in Hollywood’s awards landscape. No longer the Globes’ consolation bracket, these races now contain some of the season’s most exciting contenders — and genuine Oscar hopefuls. Which film will pack the hardest punch?
The final Golden Globes predictions in film and TV are below.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
FILM
Best Picture (Drama)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios); “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.); “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios); “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix); “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures); “Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios); “Train Dreams” (Netflix); “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa); “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“No Other Choice” (Neon)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alternates: “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Bugonia” (Focus Features); “Eternity” (A24); “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24); “Merrily We Roll Along” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Pillion” (A24); “Rental Family” (Searchlight Pictures); “Roofman” (Paramount Pictures); “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features); “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor (Drama)
Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Colin Farrell, “Ballad of a Small Player” (Netflix)
Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon) ***
Alternates: Will Arnett, “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures); Russell Crowe, “Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics); Daniel Day-Lewis, “Anemone” (Focus Features); Frank Dillane, “Urchin” (1-2 Special); Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress (Drama)
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Laura Dern, “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jennifer Lawrence, “Die My Love” (Mubi)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Sydney Sweeney, “Christy” (Black Bear Pictures)
Tessa Thompson, “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Alternates: Kathleen Chalfant, “Familiar Touch” (Music Box Films); Julia Garner, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.); Lucy Liu, “Rosemead” (Vertical); Helen Mirren, “Goodbye June” (Netflix); Imogen Poots, “The Chronology of Water” (The Forge); Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24) ***
George Clooney, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Brendan Fraser, “Rental Family” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Lee Byung Hun, “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Alternates: Hugh Jackman, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features); John Leguizamo, “Bob Trevino Likes It” (Roadside Attractions); Josh O’Connor, “Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix); Robert Pattinson, “Mickey 17” (Warner Bros.); Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Focus Features); Channing Tatum, “Roofman” (Paramount Pictures); Tonatiuh, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Alternates: Pamela Anderson, “The Naled Gun” (Paramount Pictures); Olivia Colman, “The Roses” (Searchlight Pictures); Jamie Lee Curtis, “Freakier Friday” (Walt Disney Pictures); Jodie Foster, “A Private Life” (Sony Pictures Classics); Dakota Johnson, “Materialists” (A24); June Squibb, “Eleanor the Great” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Alternates: Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix); Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.); William H. Macy, “Train Dreams” (Netflix); Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics); Alexander Skarsgård, “Pillion” (A24); Jeremy Strong, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Zoey Deutch, “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.); Nina Hoss, “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios); Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon); Jennifer Lopez, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions); Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.); Hailee Steinfeld, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director — Motion Picture
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Mona Fastvold, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Alternates: James Cameron, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios); Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix); Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent” (Neon); Oliver Laxe, “Sirât” (Neon); Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon); Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Screenplay — Motion Picture
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Alternates: “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Robert Kaplow; “Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy; “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Jafar Panahi; “Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie; “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix) — Holly Gent, Vincent Palmo;
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Hildur Guðnadóttir
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
Alternates: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — Simon Franglen; “Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jerskin Fendrix; “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer; “Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell; “Marty Supreme” (A24) — Daniel Lopatin; “Tron Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Nine Inch Nails
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Song
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — “Dream as One” by Miley Cyrus, Simon Franglen, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — “Drive” by Ed Sheeran, John Mayer, Blake Slatkin
“Highest 2 Lowest” (A24/Apple Original Films) — Aiyana-Lee Anderson and Nicole Daciana Anderson
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — “Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — “I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — “The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen Schwartz
Alternates: “Clothed by the Sun” by Daniel Blumberg from “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures); “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” by Alice Smith, Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.); “Lose My Mind” – Don Toliver, Doja Cat, Hans Zimmer, Ryan Tedder, Grant Boutin from “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.); “No Place Like Home” by Stephen Schwartz from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures); “Train Dreams” by Nick Cave, Bryce Dessner from “Train Dreams” (Netflix) — “Zoo” by Shakira and Ed Sheeran from “Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
Alternates: “In Your Dreams” (Netflix); “A Magnificent Life” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Scarlet” (Crunchyroll); “The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” (Paramount Pictures); “The Twits” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Non-English Language Film
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon) ***
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“Sound of Falling” from Germany (Mubi)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
Alternates: “All That’s Left of You” from Jordan (Watermelon Pictures); “Belén” from Argentina (Amazon MGM Studios); “Nouvelle Vague” from France (Netflix); “Palestine 36” from Palestine (Watermelon Pictures); “The President’s Cake” from Iraq (Sony Pictures Classics); “Sirāt” from Spain (Neon)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
TV
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie – Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Superman” (DC Studios)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alternates: “The Conjuring: Last Rites” (“Thunderbolts*” (Marvel Studios); “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios); “How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures); “Jurassic World: Rebirth” (Universal Pictures); “Lilo and Stitch” (Walt Disney Pictures); “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures); “Thunderbolts*” (Marvel Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Podcast of the Year
“Call Her Daddy“
“Good Hang with Amy Poehler” ***
“SmartLess”
“The Joe Rogan Experience“
“This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von“
“Up First from NPR“
Alternates: “Crime Junkie”; “Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard”; “Pod Save America”
TV Series (Drama)
“Andor” (Disney+)
“The Lowdown” (FX)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
“Severance” (Apple TV)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)
“Task” (HBO Max)
Alternates: “The Diplomat” (Netflix); “Pluribus” (Apple TV); “Slow Horses” (Apple TV);
TV Series (Comedy)
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“Hacks” (HBO Max)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“The Paper” (Peacock)
“The Studio” (Apple TV) ***
“Wednesday” (Netflix)
Alternates: “The Bear” (FX); “I Love L.A.” (HBO Max); “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
TV Series (Limited/Movie)
“Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
“All Her Fault” (Peacock)
“Death by Lightning” (Netflix)
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
“Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
“Sirens” (Netflix)
Alternates: “Black Mirror” (Netflix); “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy” (Peacock); “Dope Thief” (Apple TV);
TV Actor (Drama)
Ethan Hawke, “The Lowdown” (FX)
Diego Luna, “Andor” (Disney+)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
Adam Scott, “Severance” (Apple TV)
Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman” (Paramount+)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
Alternates: Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu); Michael C. Hall, “Dexter: Resurrection” (Paramount+); Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (HBO Max)
TV Actor (Comedy)
Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Domhnall Gleeson, “The Paper” (Peacock)
Glen Powell, “Chad Powers” (Hulu)
Tim Robinson, “The Chair Company” (HBO Max)
Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV) ***
Alexander Skarsgård, “Murderbot” (Apple TV)
Alternates: Ted Danson, “A Man on the Inside” (Netflix); Benito Skinner, “Overcompensating” (Prime Video); Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)
TV Actor (Limited/Movie)
Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief” (Apple TV)
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Michael Shannon, “Death by Lightning” (Netflix)
Jude Law, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Alternates: Michael Chernus, “Devil in Disguise: John Wayne Gacy” (Peacock); Paul Giamatti, “Black Mirror” (Netflix); Jason Momoa, “Chief of War” (Apple TV)
TV Actress (Drama)
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age” (HBO Max) ***
Britt Lower, “Severance” (Apple TV)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Alternates: Helen Mirren, “1923” (Paramount+); Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu); Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
TV Actress (Comedy)
Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Sabrina Impacciatore, “The Paper” (Peacock)
Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday” (Netflix)
Rachel Sennott, “I Love L.A.” (HBO Max) ***
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Alternates: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC); Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” (FX); Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale” (Apple TV)
TV Actress (Limited/Movie)
Patricia Arquette, “Murdaugh: Death in the Family” (Hulu)
Toni Collette, “Wayward” (Netflix)
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Meghann Fahy, “Sirens” (Netflix)
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” (FX) ***
Alternates: Rashida Jones, “Black Mirror” (Netflix); Robin Wright, “The Girlfriend” (Prime Video); Renée Zellweger, “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy” (Peacock)
Supporting Actor (Television)
Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO Max)
Bill Skarsgård, “It: Welcome to Derry” (HBO Max)
Tramell Tillman, “Severance” (Apple TV)
Alternates: Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio” (Apple TV); Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max); Wagner Moura, “Dope Thief” (Apple TV)
Supporting Actress (Television)
Nicole Beharie, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio” (Apple TV)
Alternates: Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things” (Netflix); Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max); Parker Posey, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
Stand-Up Comedy Performance
“Bert Kreischer: Lucky” (Netflix)
“Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years” (Hulu)
“Cristela Alonzo: Upper Classy” (Netflix)
“Marc Maron: Panicked” (HBO Max) ***
“Sarah Silverman: PostMortem” (Netflix)
“Sarah Squirm: Live + In The Flesh” (HBO Max)
Alternates: “Mo Amer: Wild World” (Netflix); “Leslie Jones: Life Part 2” (Peacock); “Sebastian Maniscalco: It Ain’t Right” (Hulu); “Kumail Nanjiani: Night Thoughts” (Hulu); “Andrew Santino: White Noise” (Hulu)
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