Lake Powell: Water flows to drop 24% below normal say forecasters
Federal forecasts reveal that water flows into Lake Powell are expected to be only 76 percent of the seasonal norm this year, a drop from the 81 percent prediction made earlier this month.
The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center attributes the decline to poor precipitation above the reservoir, which fell to 69 percent of normal from January 1–15.
Snowpack conditions, crucial for runoff, are uneven across the region, with below-normal levels in southern Utah, Colorado and Arizona.
Newsweek contacted the Forecast Center via email for further comment.
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Why It Matters
Lake Powell serves as a critical water source for the Colorado River Basin, supporting more than 40 million people across seven states and Mexico.
It funnels water directly downstream to Lake Mead, which supplies Arizona, California and Nevada.
Persistent low flows could exacerbate challenges already posed by growing demand and climate change. The potential for a repeat of historic low-flow years, such as 2022–23, raises alarm for long-term water sustainability in the region.
What To Know
While mid-January snow water equivalent (SWE)—a critical measurement that represents the amount of water contained in snowpack—in parts of west-central Colorado is near or above average, conditions in other key areas like the San Juan River Basin and southern Utah are well below normal.
The Lower Colorado River Basin is experiencing one of its driest winters on record, with some areas receiving no measurable precipitation in December 2024.
Lake Powell currently sits at 3,567.30 feet above sea level—the highest for this time of year since 2022. Lake Mead, however, is lower than in 2024 and 2022 but still above 2023 levels.
The report highlights potential relief later in the season, as weather models indicate the possibility of a favorable shift in storm patterns.
USDA National Resources Conservation Service
What People Are Saying
Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute, previously told Newsweek: “You don’t fully know what’s going to happen with runoff or reservoirs until March. It’s kind of like trying to predict the stock market. You know, there’s all sorts of data out there that you can look at, and maybe you’ll be right, but you probably won’t be.”
The Colorado River Basin Forecast Center said in its report: “Long-range weather models have been hinting at the development of longwave troughing over the West Coast near the end of the month and lingering into February.
“If this pattern change comes to fruition, the storm track would become more favorable for significant precipitation events across the [Colorado River Basin Forecast Center] area, but especially in the [Lower Colorado River Basin].”
What Happens Next
The Colorado River Basin is at a crossroads as experts closely monitor snowpack and precipitation levels through the remainder of winter and spring. Federal forecasters will refine predictions as conditions evolve, but early warnings suggest continued challenges in balancing water supply with demand.
Long-term, addressing the impacts of climate change and sustained drought will require coordinated efforts across all stakeholders, including the seven basin states and Mexico.
With current water-sharing agreements set to expire in 2026, intense negotiations are underway to determine how the dwindling Colorado River supply will be allocated among its stakeholders.
In the short term, water managers are watching for potential shifts in weather patterns that could bring much-needed precipitation to the region.
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