Emmy Predictions: 23 Categories Updated With First Ranking Charts in Series Categories Topped With ‘Severance,’ ‘Hacks’ and ‘Adolescence’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Emmys Commentary (Updated: March 27, 2025): Official Emmy prediction charts are finally rolling out, and signaling the unofficial start of awards season for the small screen. Early rankings are now live for drama series, comedy series, and limited/anthology series — and yes, it’s as competitive as ever with new shows, familiar faces, rising underdogs, and possibly some eyebrow-raising surprises.
Also in the mix: the first wave of picks for the four guest acting categories. But, take those with a grain of salt. Thanks to a recent shift in the Television Academy’s rules (plus a handful of stealthy shows with surprise appearances not yet released), those categories could change drastically once all contenders are fully revealed. Spoilers could be hiding in plain sight, with the best curveballs not aired yet.
Where are we now in the race?
While the Emmy voting period begins in June, the campaign trail is underway. For Your Consideration (FYC) events are happening around town, as networks and streamers begin courting voters with screenings, panels, and cast Q&As.
Netflix is getting a head start with its award-winning reality series “Love on the Spectrum.” The streamer will host a special event on Monday, April 1, to celebrate the show’s third season, just one day before it drops on the platform (scoop: I’ll be moderating that conversation with the cast).
Meanwhile, the Television Academy’s official events will occur in April and May. Up next on the circuit is a showcase for AMC’s moody supernatural drama “Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire” on April 3. Later that week, on April 6, Disney+ will spotlight its acclaimed TV movie “Out of My Mind,” while ABC waltzes in with a tribute to its long-running hit “Dancing with the Stars.”
What’s next?
Below are the updated Emmy predictions across 23 categories, with more to be added over the coming weeks. The first ranking charts for the four main drama acting categories will be revealed on Friday, March 28.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Drama Series
“Andor” (Disney+)
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
“Severance” (Apple TV+) ***
“Squid Game” (Netflix)
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Hacks” (HBO/Max) ***
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Limited or Anthology Series
“Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Television Movie
“Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy” (Peacock)
“The Gorge” (Apple TV+) ***
“G20” (Prime Video)
“Out of My Mind” (Disney+)
“Rebel Ridge” (Netflix)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Lead Actor (Drama)
Sterling K. Brown
“Paradise” (Hulu)
Gary Oldman
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Pedro Pascal
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Eddie Redmayne
“The Day of the Jackal” (Peacock)
Adam Scott ***
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Noah Wyle
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Lead Actor (Comedy)
Adam Brody
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Ted Danson
“A Man on the Inside” (Netflix)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Seth Rogen
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
Nicholas Alexander Chavez
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
Colin Farrell ***
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Stephen Graham
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Brian Tyree Henry
“Dope Thief” (Apple TV+)
Kevin Kline
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Cooper Koch
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Lead Actress (Drama)
Kathy Bates ***
“Matlock” (CBS)
Nicola Coughlan
“Bridgerton” (Netflix)
Britt Lower
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Elisabeth Moss
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Bella Ramsey
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Keri Russell
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Lead Actress (Comedy)
Uzo Aduba
“The Residence” (Netflix)
Kristen Bell
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Quinta Brunson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Natasha Lyonne
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Jean Smart ***
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Lead Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
Cate Blanchett
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Rashida Jones
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
Nicole Kidman
“The Perfect Couple” (Netflix)
Cristin Milioti
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Lola Petticrew
“Say Nothing” (FX)
Michelle Williams ***
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actor (Drama)
Zach Cherry
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Walton Goggins ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Jason Isaacs
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Jack Lowden
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Sam Rockwell
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Tramell Tillman
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
John Turturro
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Jeffrey Wright
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Ike Barinholtz
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Colman Domingo
“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Paul W. Downs
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Harrison Ford
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
“The Bear” (FX)
Michael Urie ***
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Tyler James Williams
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Bowen Yang
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
Javier Bardem
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
Sacha Baron Cohen
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Owen Cooper ***
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Jay Duplass
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Rhenzy Felix
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Diego Luna
“La Maquina” (Hulu)
Peter Sarsgaard
“Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actress (Drama)
Patricia Arquette
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Kaitlyn Dever
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Fiona Dourif
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Allison Janney ***
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Parker Posey
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Natasha Rothwell
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Liza Colón-Zayas
“The Bear” (FX)
Hannah Einbinder
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Kathryn Hahn
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Janelle James ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Catherine O’Hara
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Meg Stalter
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Jessica Williams
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
Erin Doherty ***
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Lesley Manville
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Ruth Negga
“Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
Deirdre O’Connell
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Jenny Slate
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Sissy Spacek
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Christine Tremarco
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actor (Drama)
Jon Bernthal
“Daredevil: Born Again” (Disney+)
Andy Garcia
“Landman” (Paramount+)
Scott Glenn ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Shawn Hatosy
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Joe Pantoliano
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Danny Ramirez
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actress (Drama)
Gwendoline Christie
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Catherine O’Hara ***
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Fiona Shaw
“Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
Hilary Swank
“Yellowjackets” (Paramount+)
Tracey Ullman
“Black Doves” (Netflix)
Merrit Wever
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actor (Comedy)
Jon Bernthal
“The Bear” (FX)
John Cena ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Bryan Cranston
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Timothée Chalamet
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Christopher McDonald
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Martin Scorsese
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actress (Comedy)
Jamie Lee Curtis
“The Bear” (FX)
Cynthia Erivo
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Ariana Grande
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Melissa McCarthy ***
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Kaitlin Olson
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Sarah Polley
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Talk Series
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central) ***
“Everybody’s Live with John Mulaney” (Netflix)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
“Late Night with Seth Meyers” (NBC)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Scripted Variety
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO/Max)
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC) ***
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Reality Competition Program
“The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS)
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
“The Traitors” (Peacock) ***
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
