Oscar Predictions 2026: Venice and Telluride Will Spark the Start of Awards Season

By Kim Browne21 August 2025

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Guillermo del Toro and Oscar Isaac on the set of “Frankenstein” Ken Woroner/Netflix

Oscars Commentary (Updated: Aug. 21, 2025): Venice and Telluride Film Festivals are about to unfurl their red carpets, and with them comes the official launch of awards season.

The list of contenders right now is both premature and volatile — bound to shift with every deafening ovation in Venice or a breathless crowd reaction in the Colorado mountains.

And let’s be clear: there is no frontrunner. Not yet, anyway. That means the playing field is wide open, with studios all scrambling for the pole position.

Focus Features, Netflix and Neon arrive with the bulkiest arsenals. They’ll be juggling multiple ponies in the race, including Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” and Palme d’Or winner Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident.”

Warner Bros. is reloading for Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” while hoping to squeeze some extra mileage out of Zach Cregger’s genre smash “Weapons,” potentially launching Amy Madigan into the supporting actress conversation.

Amazon MGM is staking much of its awards hopes on Luca Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt,” anchored by Julia Roberts in what’s being billed as her most dynamic role in years. For Roberts, is a carefully staged return to the kind of prestige lane that made her the reigning queen of Hollywood in the late ’90s and early 2000s.

The Oscar winner for “Erin Brockovich” (2000) hasn’t been a major fixture in the Oscar conversation since her nomination for “August: Osage County” (2013). That’s more than a decade of absence from the top tier of awards chatter — a lifetime in Hollywood years. “After the Hunt,” which will bow in Venice, is seen as her best shot at reclaiming that spot.

The trailer suggests something sharp, thorny and psychological, drawing comparisons to “Notes on a Scandal” and “Tár.” If the film sticks the landing, Roberts could find herself in the thick of a wide-open best actress race — the kind of overdue narrative voters love to get behind. And make no mistake, few stars can still command an audience’s attention like Roberts. Plus, it’ll be great to see Guadagnino be back in the hunt, especially after “Challengers.”

20th Century Studios faces a juggling act with its Bruce Springsteen biopic “Deliver Me From Nowhere” and James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third entry in his juggernaut franchise.

Searchlight Pictures keeps it prestige with Bradley Cooper’s third directing effort “Is This Thing On?” and Hikari’s “Rental Family,” which charmed Berlin and stars Brendan Fraser.

Sony Pictures Classics is angling for a comeback arc: Russell Crowe in James Vanderbilt’s “Nuremberg” and the still Oscar-less Ethan Hawke from the Berlin-acclaimed “Blue Moon.”

Apple remains bullish on Joseph Kosinski’s racing epic “F1,” betting artisan branch support could drive it to best picture.

Paramount could slip in a crowdpleaser with “Roofman,” pairing Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst, while Lionsgate puts its chips on “Kiss of the Spider Woman” with Jennifer Lopez and Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut, “Good Fortune” with Keanu Reeves and Seth Rogen.

Latecomers and orphans always shake things up. All eyes are on Mona Fastvold, who earned her first Oscar nomination alongside partner Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist.” She’s directing the musical “The Testament of Ann Lee,” with Amanda Seyfried said to be delivering the best work of her career.

Mubi is swinging for critical heat with “Die, My Love,” starring Jennifer Lawrence, and “The History of Sound,” led by Paul Mescal.

For now, the race is wide open. Let’s enjoy this time, shall we?

Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (films): “Sinners” (13); “Frankenstein” (12); “Wicked: For Good” (10); “Hamnet” (9); “Jay Kelly” and “Sentimental Value” (7)

Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (studios): Netflix (28); Warner Bros. (17); Focus Features (14); Neon (13); Universal Pictures (11)

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)